ME WAR · Intel Brief
Unclassified · OSINT
§01Archive243 briefs

One MDX file per day, committed to content/briefs/ by the morning Routine at 09:00 Asia/Taipei (01:00 UTC). Flash notes from the 18:00 run are folded into the next morning's brief.

Day
Date
Title
Direction
Risk / 7d
C/F 30d
252
2026-11-06
Day 252 brief — Oman and Qatar talk of ending the state of war, Rezaei takes Hormuz to Moscow, and Trump says he is locked and loaded
mixed
extreme
10%
251
2026-11-05
Day 251 brief — Democrats take both houses of Congress, Brent falls below $95, and Tehran's leader says concessions were a mistake
mixed
extreme
10%
250
2026-11-04
Day 250 brief — The US strikes Qeshm and calls it defensive, Qatar works toward an interim deal, and Brent falls 7% on a draft no one has published
mixed
extreme
9%
249
2026-11-03
Day 249 brief — Netanyahu's motive surfaces as the midterms arrive, Iran's delegation leaves Doha with the blockade as its price, and the strait's flow figures collide
mixed
extreme
9%
248
2026-11-02
Day 248 brief — Netanyahu presses for a strike the day after the vote, Rubio says no deadline and no decision, and the mine claim reaches an eighth rendering
mixed
extreme
9%
247
2026-11-01
Day 247 brief — the supreme leader orders the target lists widened, Rezaei's answer points both ways, and the strait names its first hulls
mixed
extreme
9%
246
2026-10-31
Day 246 brief — the promised answer does not arrive, Vance offers to meet in person, and the named airbases appear in the flight record
mixed
extreme
9%
245
2026-10-30
Day 245 brief — Vance's letter reaches Rezaei, Cooper briefs Trump on targets, and the president disowns his own channel
mixed
extreme
10%
244
2026-10-29
Day 244 brief — Washington tells the Gulf to prepare, the count inverts Israel's exit polls, and Aramco finally speaks about Ras Tanura
escalating
extreme
7%
243
2026-10-28
Day 243 brief — Israel's ballot ends without a majority, a missile reaches Ras Tanura, and the IAEA puts 440 kg back before the Security Council
mixed
extreme
6%
242
2026-10-27
Day 242 brief — the strike package reaches 96-hour readiness, the Mecca Pact's defence chiefs sit down in Tehran, and Israel votes
mixed
extreme
7%
241
2026-10-26
Day 241 brief — Trump issues the calendar one day at a time, Netanyahu campaigns on a nuclear blast over Tel Aviv, and the Houthis name the bypass pipeline itself
escalating
extreme
3%
240
2026-10-25
Day 240 brief — Trump disowns his envoy without denying him, withdraws his own no-strike pledge, and Netanyahu's army chief says there is no need to strike before Tuesday
escalating
extreme
4%
239
2026-10-24
Day 239 brief — Trump's envoy says a strike could come this weekend, Netanyahu orders the regime's removal, and the oil on Umm Al Quwain's beaches may be Taiwanese
escalating
extreme
3%
238
2026-10-23
Day 238 brief — Trump says the US is not negotiating, Aramco empties its Dhahran headquarters, and Riyadh finally publishes a casualty figure of its own
escalating
extreme
3%
237
2026-10-22
Day 237 brief — Washington denies the Konarak strike, Araghchi says the Americans accepted his conditions and asked for more, and two named hulls are hit from Al Faw to Bukha
escalating
extreme
5%
236
2026-10-21
Day 236 brief — Hegseth lands in Israel unannounced, the IRGC threatens the Strait's internet cables, and Brent erases the waiver dip to a five-month high
escalating
extreme
5%
235
2026-10-20
Day 235 brief — Egypt's authorisation slips to the 26th, Netanyahu puts regime removal in the first person, and five senators publish an American casualty figure
escalating
extreme
5%
234
2026-10-19
Day 234 brief — Israel names regime removal as the objective, Cairo approves a deployment, and Tehran puts a dated Hormuz reopening back on the table
escalating
extreme
5%
233
2026-10-18
Day 233 brief — An independent audit falsifies the debris account, Brent touches $110, and Cairo asks its parliament for authority to defend Riyadh
escalating
extreme
5%
232
2026-10-17
Day 232 brief — The Security Council speaks without naming Iran, the president narrows the menu, and the weekly audit brings a fourth count
escalating
extreme
5%
231
2026-10-16
Day 231 brief — The damage reaches the chief executive's office, the airport toll gains a third publisher, and the palace in Aden is hit
escalating
extreme
5%
230
2026-10-15
Day 230 brief — The designated target is struck, the damage account splits, and Iran names price as the objective
escalating
extreme
6%
229
2026-10-14
Day 229 brief — The coalition strikes Yemen's oil, the Houthis name Aramco, and interception stops being free
escalating
extreme
7%
228
2026-10-13
Day 228 brief — Saudi Arabia runs short of interceptors, Pakistan starts striking, and Britain names the IRGC
escalating
extreme
8%
227
2026-10-12
Day 227 brief — The Houthis claim Riyadh, a second airport is struck, and Iran calls the US response insufficient
escalating
extreme
8%
226
2026-10-11
Day 226 brief — A missile into Riyadh's domestic terminals kills twelve and the pre-midterm commitment goes under review
escalating
extreme
9%
225
2026-10-10
Day 225 brief — Washington buys Russian diesel to hold its own fuel price as the IRGC claims a tanker on the bypass route
escalating
extreme
10%
224
2026-10-09
Day 224 brief — Trump rules out pre-midterm strikes while the Pentagon is told to finish preparing, and five airlines quit Riyadh
escalating
extreme
9%
223
2026-10-08
Day 223 brief — The White House asks for pre-midterm strike options, the Saudi airport campaign turns lethal, and Mocha is corrected back to Houthi hands
escalating
extreme
6%
222
2026-10-07
Day 222 brief — The bypass is confirmed at 5.8 million barrels, the UN puts the first number on Yemen's dead, and a bombed nuclear site stirs
escalating
extreme
7%
221
2026-10-06
Day 221 brief — Gulf exports return to pre-war parity, Turkey and Pakistan commit forces to Saudi Arabia, and Mocha changes hands again
escalating
extreme
7%
220
2026-10-05
Day 220 brief — Yemen declares a war of reconquest, the Houthis claim Aramco at Riyadh and Khurais, and the bombers leave Fairford
escalating
extreme
8%
219
2026-10-04
Day 219 brief — The UAE closes the Flydubai file, the principals meet at Camp David, and Yemen produces the war's bloodiest claimed day
escalating
extreme
10%
218
2026-10-03
Day 218 brief — The G7 answers the diesel bottleneck, the carrier arrival moves inside the window, and the Flydubai trail leads to an Omani flight ban
mixed
extreme
11%
217
2026-10-02
Day 217 brief — Washington expels Iran's delegation and says peace may never come, a third carrier sails, and a hijack attempt reopens the attribution war
escalating
extreme
8%
216
2026-10-01
Day 216 brief — The counter-offer reaches Pezeshkian's cabinet, London names Iran for a plot on British soil, and America walks out of Iraq
mixed
extreme
13%
215
2026-09-30
Day 215 brief — The answer comes back through Qatar and changes the subject, and America spends its last strategic barrels
mixed
extreme
11%
214
2026-09-29
Day 214 brief — The channel starts carrying an answer, and the Pentagon's ledger moves
mixed
extreme
9%
213
2026-09-28
Day 213 brief — The rejection acquires a calendar, and the strait acquires two incompatible descriptions
mixed
extreme
7%
212
2026-09-27
Day 212 brief — Trump rejects the roadmap out loud, and Iran's president answers the mandate question on American television
mixed
extreme
5%
211
2026-09-26
Day 211 brief — the mandate fight becomes an impeachment motion, the sanctions panel dies, and France puts troops on Yanbu
mixed
extreme
5%
210
2026-09-25
Day 210 brief — Tehran's own security establishment disowns the Witkoff meeting, Rubio says no breakthrough, and the Iran sanctions panel dies on Saturday
mixed
extreme
5%
209
2026-09-24
Day 209 brief — Witkoff and Kushner meet Iran's delegation for three hours, Tehran prices Hormuz at seven days, and Brent recovers four sessions in one
mixed
extreme
6%
208
2026-09-23
Day 208 brief — Trump answers seven conditions with a calendar, CENTCOM says the Hormuz mines are cleared, and Brent unwinds the capital-strike premium
mixed
extreme
2%
206
2026-09-21
Day 206 brief — Tehran puts seven conditions on the table through Qatar, the Mission presents in Geneva to an empty American seat, and a struck capital moves Brent 78 cents
escalating
extreme
3%
205
2026-09-20
Day 205 brief — the Houthis reach Riyadh for the first time and hit Yanbu again, while Washington quits the Human Rights Council rather than answer it
escalating
extreme
2%
204
2026-09-19
Day 204 brief — Washington rejects the war-crime finding outright and Trump weighs annihilation, while Iran claims a tanker strike inside the American escort corridor
escalating
extreme
2%
203
2026-09-18
Day 203 brief — A UN mission finds reasonable grounds that the US committed a war crime on the war's first day, and that Iran's protest crackdown amounts to crimes against humanity
escalating
extreme
2%
202
2026-09-17
Day 202 brief — Saudi Arabia says a Houthi drone was downed near Mecca and calls the holy sites a red line, as Aramco suspends loadings at Yanbu
escalating
extreme
2%
201
2026-09-16
Day 201 brief — Saudi Arabia strikes four Houthi-held areas of Yemen after a missile barrage on King Khalid Air Base, retiring the region's last restraint
escalating
extreme
2%
200
2026-09-15
Day 200 brief — the July Hormuz attacks that killed the US-Iran memorandum were ordered outside the chain of command, the New York Times reports
escalating
extreme
2%
199
2026-09-14
Day 199 brief — Oman postpones the Salalah Hormuz talks hours before they convene, leaving the war without a dated diplomatic track
escalating
extreme
2%
198
2026-09-13
Day 198 brief — Commercial vessel lethally struck inside Hormuz as Bahrain boycotts Monday's Salalah talks and Iran's factional crisis deepens
escalating
extreme
2%
197
2026-09-12
Day 197 brief — Houthis seize Yemen's Red Sea coast near Bab al-Mandeb as Saudi Arabia shuts its Hormuz-bypass pipeline and Iran agrees to Gulf shipping talks in Oman
escalating
extreme
2%
196
2026-09-11
Day 196 brief — Brent hits $105 as Trump rules out an Iran deal until after the midterms and the Saudi–Yemen war turns to mass-casualty fighting
escalating
extreme
2%
195
2026-09-10
Day 195 brief — Brent breaks $100 to its highest since May as the Saudi–Yemen front opens to war and Iran's Hormuz 'restricted zone' hardens into a claimed maritime campaign
escalating
extreme
3%
194
2026-09-09
Day 194 brief — Houthi barrage on Saudi energy sites reopens the Yemen front and pushes Brent toward $100; Hormuz hardens both ways as the IAEA goes 'completely blind'
escalating
extreme
3%
193
2026-09-08
Day 193 brief — Iran readies a 'restricted zone' beyond Hormuz as the tanker war becomes competing blockades; Brent at a six-week high; IAEA 'completely blind'
escalating
extreme
3%
192
2026-09-07
Day 192 brief — Iran declares its 'proportionate responses are over' and warns of 'faster, heavier, more painful' strikes as the war hardens into a tanker war
escalating
extreme
3%
191
2026-09-06
Day 191 brief — The narrative war reaches the Oval Office: Trump calls the conflict 'small potatoes' as oil posts its biggest weekly gain of the war near $96
escalating
extreme
3%
190
2026-09-05
Day 190 brief — The war over narrative: Vance disputes the 'war' label and the wedding strike as NYT forensics contradict him; Brent at six-week highs near $96
escalating
extreme
3%
189
2026-09-04
Day 189 brief — Kinetic pause holds a second day; the UN Security Council condemns Iran's Hormuz attacks as China and Russia abstain; the wedding toll hardens; Brent near $92
escalating
extreme
3%
188
2026-09-03
Day 188 brief — The morning after: Iran alleges a US wedding-party strike near Hormuz; the exchange pauses at a high plateau; Trump signals 'weeks of fighting'; transits fall to four
escalating
extreme
3%
187
2026-09-02
Day 187 brief — The kinetic cap breaks: US strikes Iranian minelayers near Hormuz, Iran hits US bases in Jordan and Gulf states; Trump threatens 'the big one'; Brent spikes
escalating
extreme
3%
186
2026-09-01
Day 186 brief — Bessent takes the economic war to the G20 and wins EU-ECB backing while the China bank blow stays holstered; Araghchi says there are no talks; Brent near $89
mixed
critical
5%
185
2026-08-31
Day 185 brief — the mediation chorus thickens with no US table as Qatar and Pakistan work Tehran; Beijing vows rare-earth payback before the Sept 24 Xi summit; Brent holds near $88
mixed
critical
5%
184
2026-08-30
Day 184 brief — pre-summit US-China diplomacy intensifies while the bank blow stays holstered; the Iran-Oman Hormuz corridor firms as Qatar backs it; Brent plateaus near $88
mixed
critical
5%
182
2026-08-28
Day 182 brief — the bank-blow deadline lapses under the Sept 24 Xi summit; Iran and Oman open a temporary Hormuz corridor and mine-clearance; Brent slides toward $86
mixed
critical
5%
181
2026-08-27
Day 181 brief — China escalates to Xi-level defiance as the unnamed bank blow's deadline runs; Bessent concedes it could 'blow up' the financial system; Brent holds below $90
mixed
critical
5%
180
2026-08-26
Day 180 brief — the deferred China-bank blow gets a this-week deadline as Bessent pledges a 'major financial institution' sanction; Pakistan's Munir mediates, Brent sells below $90
mixed
critical
5%
179
2026-08-25
Day 179 brief — Bessent's 'Operation Economic Outcast' lands with ~60 designations but spares China's banks; Beijing invokes its blocking statute and Iran vows a 'seismic' answer
mixed
critical
5%
178
2026-08-24
Day 178 brief — Iran's new security chief threatens to choke every Gulf export route as Bessent's isolation plan lands; Pezeshkian and Egypt reach for the lapsed memorandum
mixed
critical
5%
177
2026-08-23
Day 177 brief — Iran declares victory and calls the coming sanctions a 'declaration of war on all nations' on the eve of Bessent's Monday isolation-plan rollout
mixed
critical
5%
176
2026-08-22
Day 176 brief — CENTCOM reveals it has escorted 660 million barrels through a still-shut Hormuz as Brent tops $93 and the Monday isolation plan looms
mixed
critical
5%
175
2026-08-21
Day 175 brief — Iran and China counter the 'economic isolation' plan as Bessent rules out large-scale combat and Brent firms toward $93
mixed
critical
5%
174
2026-08-20
Day 174 brief — Washington unveils its 'economic isolation' plan and rules out Iran talks as Brent breaks toward $92 and Trump hardens the Oman bomb-threat
mixed
critical
5%
173
2026-08-19
Day 173 brief — Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the war's neutral mediator, as the Hormuz deal stalls and the Gaza disarmament mechanism hardens on Israel's terms
mixed
critical
6%
172
2026-08-18
Day 172 brief — the lapsed deadline's abstractions harden into mechanisms: a US general to oversee Hamas disarmament, and the first claimed Houthi strike on a Saudi warship
mixed
critical
6%
171
2026-08-17
Day 171 brief — the morning after the lapsed deadline, Washington readies an 'economic isolation' plan while Iran moves to write the Hormuz closure into law
mixed
critical
6%
170
2026-08-16
Day 170 brief — the twice-extended deadline lapses into stalemate as Iran downgrades the contacts to 'not negotiations' and Israel widens its Lebanon strikes
mixed
critical
7%
169
2026-08-15
Day 169 brief — Iran's Hormuz enforcement turns on its neighbors: the UAE and Qatar condemn strikes on two ADNOC tankers as the twice-extended deadline arrives hollow
mixed
critical
7%
168
2026-08-14
Day 168 brief — Both sides dig in as the deadline nears: Hegseth says the US can blockade Iran 'indefinitely' while Tehran signals it could 'prolong' the war until Trump is gone
mixed
critical
7%
167
2026-08-13
Day 167 brief — Iran channels hardened Hormuz terms through Beijing as Pakistan shuttles to Tehran; Trump claims 'total control' as only eight ships cross the strait
mixed
critical
8%
166
2026-08-12
Day 166 brief — Hormuz deal hopes fade as Trump hardens and US objections stall the Oman route; Brent runs toward $100 as Iran installs a new hardline military command
mixed
critical
9%
165
2026-08-11
Day 165 brief — Brent breaks above $87 as Iran signals Hormuz stays shut and widens its demands; the Mecca defense pact goes untested after the Jizan strike
mixed
critical
11%
164
2026-08-10
Day 164 brief — the 'imminent' Hormuz deal cools as Trump says the US is 'only semi-negotiating'; Houthi drones strike the Saudi Aramco Jizan refinery
mixed
critical
12%
163
2026-08-09
Day 163 brief — Iran's Hormuz framework is 'finalized' but its demands widen to war-damage compensation; Trump calls off a weekend strike; Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan sign a defense pact
mixed
critical
13%
162
2026-08-08
Day 162 brief — Iran says the Oman route is 'reached' but the strait stays shut; a Houthi strike injures 11 on Saudi soil as the coordinated-attack warning lands; Brent holds ~$82
mixed
critical
13%
161
2026-08-07
Day 161 brief — Iran's published Hormuz draft bans US and Israeli ships as the deal turns 'agreed in principle' pending Khamenei; oil rebounds above $82; Saudi braces for attack
mixed
critical
13%
160
2026-08-06
Day 160 brief — Iran and Oman agree a Hormuz route with fees and Iranian control as Trump still claims a toll-free reopening; a fresh ship strike; oil below $80
mixed
critical
14%
159
2026-08-05
Day 159 brief — US calls a Hormuz deal 'imminent' as Iran denies any US talks in its own media; Trump concedes no immediate reopening; oil falls a second day; Qatar joins mediation
mixed
critical
13%
158
2026-08-04
Day 158 brief — Trump says US-Iran talks open today; Iran denies any US channel, oil sinks 5% on the pause, and Israel braces at highest alert
mixed
critical
11%
157
2026-08-03
Day 157 brief — Trump calls off the Iran strikes citing a claimed Hormuz deal, as Tehran says the strait stays shut and a Qatari LNG tanker is struck
mixed
critical
11%
156
2026-08-02
Day 156 brief — CENTCOM breaks silence to deny the Kuwait strike as Washington weighs strikes on Iran energy sites and Tehran threatens to answer in kind
escalating
critical
8%
155
2026-08-01
Day 155 brief — Iran answers on Gulf soil: drones hit Kuwait's Ahmad al-Jaber; one claimed death unconfirmed as CENTCOM stays silent and Brent holds a 20% month
escalating
critical
10%
154
2026-07-31
Day 154 brief — the pause breaks: US hits dozens of IRGC targets after Iran's salvo; Oman breaks with Tehran at the UN as Brent tops $92 and Houthis embargo Saudi Arabia
escalating
critical
11%
153
2026-07-30
Day 153 brief — Iran's intercepted missile salvo on US bases fractures the pause; US and Saudi Arabia strike militias in Iraq as Brent jumps ~7%
escalating
critical
14%
152
2026-07-29
Day 152 brief — The strike pause holds a fourth day, Bab el-Mandeb transits recover and Oman tables a two-corridor Hormuz plan, but Iran still says it has 'no negotiations'
mixed
critical
17%
151
2026-07-28
Day 151 brief — The strike pause holds a third day and Saudi Arabia signals a Red Sea reopening, but Tehran says it has 'no negotiations' with Washington and reroutes its crude to Suez
mixed
critical
15%
150
2026-07-27
Day 150 brief — The US-Iran strike pause holds a second day and Brent slides toward the low-$90s, but Saudi Arabia halts Red Sea oil exports as the maritime front escalates
mixed
critical
13%
149
2026-07-26
Day 149 brief — US and Iran appear to pause direct strikes and Oman talks advance, even as the Red Sea front stays hot and Trump banks Xi's arms pledge
mixed
critical
12%
148
2026-07-25
Day 148 brief — Houthis hit a Chinese-owned tanker as Brent slips back below $100 and Beijing answers with a call for calm
escalating
extreme
10%
147
2026-07-24
Day 147 brief — Houthis strike two Saudi tankers and Brent crosses $100 as Trump weighs a 'massive attack'
escalating
extreme
10%
146
2026-07-23
Day 146 brief — Brent breaks $90 to $94 as the second front widens and Trump nears the ceasefire-or-war fork
escalating
extreme
10%
145
2026-07-22
Day 145 brief — an Iranian ceasefire bid gets a broker, Saudi tankers turn back, and the war's price tag hits $37.5B
mixed
extreme
10%
144
2026-07-21
Day 144 brief — the Houthis declare a second chokepoint, mediators table a truce, and Brent falls
mixed
extreme
8%
143
2026-07-20
Day 143 brief — the US strikes an Iranian nuclear site, Tehran suspends the MoU, and a third American dies
escalating
extreme
4%
142
2026-07-19
Day 142 brief — two Americans killed in Jordan, Iran admits its grid is being hit, and the mediator itself comes under fire
escalating
extreme
6%
141
2026-07-18
Day 141 brief — a seventh straight strike day as Hormuz turns lethal, Netanyahu's Washington trip collapses, and Trump's power-plant fuse ticks toward Kharg
escalating
extreme
7%
140
2026-07-17
Day 140 brief — the war grows a second chokepoint: Iran readies the Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb, US strikes reach Tehran on the sixth day, Trump sets a one-week fuse on Iran's power plants
escalating
extreme
8%
139
2026-07-16
Day 139 brief — the blockade draws blood: US Hellfires disable a tanker, Iran threatens all Middle East exports, CENTCOM runs two strike waves
escalating
extreme
10%
138
2026-07-15
Day 138 brief — the blockade bites and the toll dies: US Navy turns back a Chinese tanker, Trump drops the 20% Hormuz fee, and Iran answers a fourth strike night on Gulf bases
escalating
extreme
12%
137
2026-07-14
Day 137 brief — the blockade returns: US to seal Iran's ports at 20:00 GMT, dueling 20% Hormuz tolls, and the first tanker-crew death
escalating
extreme
12%
136
2026-07-13
Day 136 brief — the round ruptures: Hormuz declared closed, ~140 US targets struck, and Iran hits five Gulf states
escalating
extreme
15%
135
2026-07-12
Day 135 brief — 2026-07-12
mixed
critical
23%
134
2026-07-11
Day 134 brief — 2026-07-11
de-escalating
critical
22%
133
2026-07-10
Day 133 brief — 2026-07-10
escalating
extreme
18%
132
2026-07-09
Day 132 brief — 2026-07-09
escalating
extreme
25%
131
2026-07-08
Day 131 brief — 2026-07-08
escalating
critical
52%
130
2026-07-07
Day 130 brief — 2026-07-07
mixed
conditional
62%
129
2026-07-06
Day 129 brief — 2026-07-06
mixed
conditional
62%
128
2026-07-05
Day 128 brief — 2026-07-05
mixed
conditional
62%
127
2026-07-04
Day 127 brief — 2026-07-04
mixed
conditional
60%
126
2026-07-03
Day 126 brief — 2026-07-03
mixed
conditional
59%
125
2026-07-02
Day 125 brief — 2026-07-02
mixed
conditional
58%
124
2026-07-01
Day 124 brief — 2026-07-01
mixed
conditional
56%
123
2026-06-30
Day 123 brief — 2026-06-30
de-escalating
conditional
57%
122
2026-06-29
Day 122 brief — 2026-06-29
escalating
critical
52%
121
2026-06-28
Day 121 brief — 2026-06-28
escalating
critical
63%
120
2026-06-27
Day 120 brief — 2026-06-27
de-escalating
conditional
73%
119
2026-06-26
Day 119 brief — 2026-06-26
mixed
conditional
70%
118
2026-06-25
Day 118 brief — 2026-06-25
de-escalating
conditional
73%
117
2026-06-24
Day 117 brief — 2026-06-24
de-escalating
conditional
72%
116
2026-06-23
Day 116 brief — 2026-06-23
de-escalating
conditional
72%
115
2026-06-22
Day 115 brief — 2026-06-22
mixed
conditional
66%
114
2026-06-21
Day 114 brief — 2026-06-21
mixed
conditional
66%
113
2026-06-20
Day 113 brief — 2026-06-20
de-escalating
conditional
70%
112
2026-06-19
Day 112 brief — 2026-06-19
de-escalating
conditional
70%
111
2026-06-18
Day 111 brief — 2026-06-18
de-escalating
conditional
60%
110
2026-06-17
Day 110 brief — 2026-06-17
de-escalating
conditional
58%
109
2026-06-16
Day 109 brief — 2026-06-16
de-escalating
conditional
55%
108
2026-06-15
Day 108 brief — 2026-06-15
de-escalating
conditional
50%
107
2026-06-14
Day 107 brief — 2026-06-14
mixed
critical
33%
106
2026-06-13
Day 106 brief — 2026-06-13
mixed
critical
28%
105
2026-06-12
Day 105 brief — 2026-06-12
mixed
critical
15%
104
2026-06-11
Day 104 brief — 2026-06-11
escalating
extreme
8%
103
2026-06-10
Day 103 brief — 2026-06-10
escalating
critical
12%
102
2026-06-09
Day 102 brief — 2026-06-09
mixed
critical
14%
101
2026-06-08
Day 101 brief — 2026-06-08
mixed
critical
14%
100
2026-06-07
Day 100 brief — 2026-06-07
mixed
critical
14%
099
2026-06-06
Day 99 brief — 2026-06-06
mixed
critical
14%
098
2026-06-05
Day 98 brief — 2026-06-05
mixed
critical
14%
097
2026-06-04
Day 97 brief — 2026-06-04
mixed
critical
14%
096
2026-06-03
Day 96 brief — 2026-06-03
escalating
critical
11%
095
2026-06-02
Day 95 brief — 2026-06-02
escalating
critical
9%
094
2026-06-01
Day 94 brief — 2026-06-01
escalating
conditional
17%
093
2026-05-31
Day 93 brief — 2026-05-31
escalating
conditional
20%
092
2026-05-30
Day 92 brief — 2026-05-30
escalating
conditional
23%
091
2026-05-29
Day 91 brief — 2026-05-29
escalating
conditional
19%
090
2026-05-28
Day 90 brief — 2026-05-28
escalating
conditional
22%
089
2026-05-27
Day 89 brief — 2026-05-27
mixed
conditional
25%
088
2026-05-26
Day 88 brief — 2026-05-26
mixed
conditional
25%
087
2026-05-25
Day 87 brief — 2026-05-25
mixed
conditional
22%
086
2026-05-24
Day 86 brief — 2026-05-24
mixed
critical
19%
085
2026-05-23
Day 85 brief — 2026-05-23
mixed
conditional
17%
084
2026-05-22
Day 84 brief — 2026-05-22
mixed
conditional
18%
083
2026-05-21
Day 83 brief — 2026-05-21
mixed
critical
15%
082
2026-05-20
Day 82 brief — 2026-05-20
mixed
critical
15%
081
2026-05-19
Day 81 brief — 2026-05-19
mixed
conditional
14%
080
2026-05-18
Day 80 brief — 2026-05-18
escalating
extreme
6%
079
2026-05-17
Day 79 brief — 2026-05-17
escalating
extreme
6%
078
2026-05-16
Day 78 brief — 2026-05-16
mixed
conditional
10%
077
2026-05-15
Day 77 brief — 2026-05-15
mixed
conditional
9%
076
2026-05-14
Day 76 brief — 2026-05-14
escalating
critical
8%
075
2026-05-13
Day 75 brief — 2026-05-13
escalating
critical
9%
074
2026-05-12
Day 74 brief — 2026-05-12
escalating
critical
11%
073
2026-05-11
Day 73 brief — 2026-05-11
escalating
critical
14%
072
2026-05-10
Day 72 brief — 2026-05-10
escalating
critical
19%
071
2026-05-09
Day 71 brief — 2026-05-09
escalating
critical
22%
070
2026-05-08
Day 70 brief — 2026-05-08
mixed
conditional
25%
069
2026-05-07
Day 69 brief — 2026-05-07
mixed
conditional
25%
068
2026-05-06
Day 68 brief — 2026-05-06
mixed
extreme
12%
067
2026-05-05
Day 67 brief — 2026-05-05
escalating
critical
8%
066
2026-05-04
Day 66 brief — 2026-05-04
escalating
extreme
13%
065
2026-05-03
Day 65 brief — 2026-05-03
escalating
extreme
16%
064
2026-05-02
Day 64 brief — 2026-05-02
escalating
extreme
19%
063
2026-05-01
Day 63 brief — 2026-05-01
escalating
extreme
22%
062
2026-04-30
Day 62 brief — 2026-04-30
escalating
extreme
25%
061
2026-04-29
Day 61 brief — 2026-04-29
mixed
extreme
28%
060
2026-04-28
Day 60 brief — 2026-04-28
mixed
extreme
26%
059
2026-04-27
Day 59 brief — 2026-04-27
mixed
extreme
30%
058
2026-04-26
Day 58 brief — 2026-04-26
mixed
extreme
28%
057
2026-04-25
Day 57 brief — 2026-04-25
mixed
extreme
32%
056
2026-04-24
Day 56 brief — 2026-04-24
mixed
extreme
30%
055
2026-04-23
Day 55 brief — 2026-04-23
mixed
conditional
32%
054
2026-04-22
Day 54 brief — 2026-04-22
de-escalating
conditional
40%
053
2026-04-21
Day 53 brief — 2026-04-21
de-escalating
conditional
40%
051
2026-04-19
US SEIZES IRANIAN SHIP — IRAN RECLOSES HORMUZ — ROUND 2 STILL TUESDAY
de-escalating
conditional
95%
050
2026-04-18
IRAN REOPENS HORMUZ (CONDITIONAL) — ROUND 2 MONDAY — DEAL '80% COMPLETE'
de-escalating
conditional
20%
049
2026-04-17
LEBANON CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCED — MUNIR MEETS IRAN'S TOP OPERATIONAL COMMANDER
de-escalating
conditional
75%
048
2026-04-16
PAKISTAN'S ARMY CHIEF IN TEHRAN — ROUND 2 TAKING SHAPE
de-escalating
conditional
65%
047
2026-04-15
HALFWAY POINT — THREE TRACKS CONVERGING
de-escalating
conditional
60%
046
2026-04-14
BLOCKADE DAY 1 — US NAVAL BLOCKADE NOW ACTIVE
de-escalating
conditional
45%
045
2026-04-13
US ANNOUNCES HORMUZ BLOCKADE — IRGC THREATENS RETALIATION
escalating
conditional
3%
044
2026-04-12
ISLAMABAD TALKS: NO DEAL — 'FINAL OFFER' LEFT ON TABLE
de-escalating
conditional
55%
043
2026-04-11
Day 43 brief — 2026-04-11
de-escalating
conditional
45%
042
2026-04-10
CEASEFIRE DAY 2 — LEBANON CRISIS THREATENS COLLAPSE
de-escalating
conditional
50%
041
2026-04-09
CEASEFIRE DAY 1 — ALREADY WOBBLING
escalating
conditional
45%
040
2026-04-08
CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCED — TWO-WEEK SUSPENSION
de-escalating
conditional
55%
039
2026-04-07
Day 39 brief — 2026-04-07
escalating
conditional
90%
038
2026-04-06
Day 38 brief — 2026-04-06
mixed
conditional
10%
037
2026-04-05
Day 37 brief — 2026-04-05
escalating
conditional
10%
036
2026-04-04
Day 36 brief — 2026-04-04
escalating
conditional
40%
035
2026-04-03
Day 35 brief — 2026-04-03
escalating
conditional
50%
034
2026-04-02
Day 34 brief — 2026-04-02
escalating
conditional
82%
033
2026-04-01
Day 33 brief — 2026-04-01
escalating
conditional
40%
032
2026-03-31
Day 32 brief — 2026-03-31
escalating
conditional
80%
031
2026-03-30
Day 31 brief — 2026-03-30
de-escalating
conditional
45%
030
2026-03-29
Day 30 brief — 2026-03-29
escalating
conditional
70%
029
2026-03-28
Day 29 brief — 2026-03-28
escalating
conditional
65%
028
2026-03-27
Day 28 brief — 2026-03-27
de-escalating
conditional
35%
027
2026-03-26
Day 27 brief — 2026-03-26
de-escalating
conditional
70%
026
2026-03-25
Day 26 brief — 2026-03-25
de-escalating
conditional
30%
024
2026-03-23
Day 24 brief — 2026-03-23
de-escalating
conditional
20%
023
2026-03-22
Day 23 brief — 2026-03-22
escalating
conditional
40%
022
2026-03-21
Day 22 brief — 2026-03-21
mixed
conditional
40%
021
2026-03-20
Day 21 brief — 2026-03-20
de-escalating
conditional
35%
020
2026-03-19
Day 20 brief — 2026-03-19
escalating
conditional
30%
019
2026-03-18
Day 19 brief — 2026-03-18
escalating
conditional
10%
018
2026-03-17
Day 18 brief — 2026-03-17
escalating
conditional
25%
017
2026-03-16
Day 17 brief — 2026-03-16
escalating
conditional
40%
016
2026-03-15
Day 16 brief — 2026-03-15
escalating
conditional
25%
015
2026-03-14
Day 15 brief — 2026-03-14
escalating
conditional
10%
014
2026-03-13
Day 14 brief — 2026-03-13
escalating
conditional
15%
013
2026-03-12
Day 13 brief — 2026-03-12
escalating
conditional
10%
012
2026-03-11
Day 12 brief — 2026-03-11
escalating
conditional
20%
011
2026-03-10
Day 11 brief — 2026-03-10
escalating
conditional
10%
010
2026-03-09
Day 10 brief — 2026-03-09
escalating
conditional
90%
009
2026-03-08
Day 9 brief — 2026-03-08
escalating
conditional
10%
008
2026-03-07
Day 8 brief — 2026-03-07
escalating
conditional
10%
007
2026-03-06
Day 7 brief — 2026-03-06
escalating
conditional
10%
001
2026-02-28
Operation Epic Fury commences with strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan
escalating
extreme
5%