Day 108 brief — 2026-06-15

Day 108 is the morning after the war's biggest de-escalation since the April 8 ceasefire — and the morning Israel's strike on Beirut put it at risk. Late on Day 107, President Trump declared the deal 'now complete,' authorized an end to the US naval blockade — 'Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!' — and Pakistan announced the US and Iran had reached an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides declaring 'the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon' (PBS/AP, RFE/RL). Analytical judgment, per §3.5.3: this is the firmest commitment of the war, but it is a mediator's declaration, not a landed signature. The formal signing is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland; full terms were not released; Iran signaled no final decision had been made (Times of Israel). The nuclear core is deferred, not resolved — Tehran has not committed to surrendering its ~440.9 kg of 60% HEU, which the IAEA flags as a short technical step from weapons-grade, and CNN reports Iran sealed the stockpile in mined tunnels (PBS, CNN via RFE/RL). And the Lebanon front detonated on announcement day: Israel struck a Hezbollah command center in Beirut's Dahiyeh suburb after Hezbollah drones hit northern Israel, Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned its response was 'imminent,' and Trump faulted the strike, saying it 'should not have happened' (Axios, Euronews, Times of Israel). 30-day ceasefire probability jumps to 50 from 33; direction turns de-escalating; the seven-day risk is conditional on whether the Friday signature lands and whether the Beirut strike triggers Iranian fire first.