ME WAR · Intel Brief
Unclassified · OSINT
§01Escalation timelineDirection by day

The canonical analytical arc: each brief's direction assessment (escalating / mixed / de-escalating) plotted over the life of the conflict. Click any node to open that day's brief.

D01D15D24D34D43D53D62D71D80D89D98D107D116D125D134D143D152D161D170D179D189D198D208D217D226D235D244ESCMIXDE
7-day risk (ordinal)
critextcondlowD1D8D10D12D14D16D18D20D22D24D27D29D31D33D35D37D39D41D43D45D47D49D51D54D56D58D60D62D64D66D68D70D72D74D76D78D80D82D84D86D88D90D92D94D96D98D100D102D104D106D108D110D112D114D116D118D120D122D124D126D128D130D132D134D136D138D140D142D144D146D148D150D152D154D156D158D160D162D164D166D168D170D172D174D176D178D180D182D185D187D189D191D193D195D197D199D201D203D205D208D210D212D214D216D218D220D222D224D226D228D230D232D234D236D238D240D242D244D246D248D250D252
Ceasefire probability / 30d (%)
1007550250D1D8D10D12D14D16D18D20D22D24D27D29D31D33D35D37D39D41D43D45D47D49D51D54D56D58D60D62D64D66D68D70D72D74D76D78D80D82D84D86D88D90D92D94D96D98D100D102D104D106D108D110D112D114D116D118D120D122D124D126D128D130D132D134D136D138D140D142D144D146D148D150D152D154D156D158D160D162D164D166D168D170D172D174D176D178D180D182D185D187D189D191D193D195D197D199D201D203D205D208D210D212D214D216D218D220D222D224D226D228D230D232D234D236D238D240D242D244D246D248D250D252