ME WAR · Intel Brief
Unclassified · OSINT
§01Escalation timelineDirection by day

The canonical analytical arc: each brief's direction assessment (escalating / mixed / de-escalating) plotted over the life of the conflict. Click any node to open that day's brief.

D01D09D12D15D18D21D24D28D31D34D37D40D43D46D49D53D56D59D62D65D68D71D74D77D80D83D86D89ESCMIXDE
7-day risk (ordinal)
critextcondlowD1D8D10D12D14D16D18D20D22D24D27D29D31D33D35D37D39D41D43D45D47D49D51D54D56D58D60D62D64D66D68D70D72D74D76D78D80D82D84D86D88D90
Ceasefire probability / 30d (%)
1007550250D1D8D10D12D14D16D18D20D22D24D27D29D31D33D35D37D39D41D43D45D47D49D51D54D56D58D60D62D64D66D68D70D72D74D76D78D80D82D84D86D88D90