Day 173 brief — Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the war's neutral mediator, as the Hormuz deal stalls and the Gaza disarmament mechanism hardens on Israel's terms

Day 173 was the day Washington turned on its own mediator. President Trump threatened to bomb Oman — the neutral Gulf sultanate that has hosted every US-Iran channel of this war — because Muscat is close to a deal with Tehran to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, warning Omani officials not to get 'in the way' (Washington Post, Time, CNN). The threat angered Omanis and puzzled observers, and it was aimed at the one interlocutor both sides still use. Iran said a transit-route map is agreed and Oman's foreign ministry published joint-statement language reaffirming safe passage and a joint working group on future navigation, but a final agreement stayed unfinalized amid the US pressure (Oman FM, Al Jazeera) — per §3.5.3 the 'very close' framing is still signaling, not a reopening. On Gaza, the demilitarization mechanism hardened on Israel's terms: after Kushner's rare talks with Hamas's leader, he and Netanyahu agreed the IDF will not leave Gaza until Hamas fully disarms under a US general's supervision, with weapons removal floated within 30 days and tunnel closures in 60–90 (NBC News, Axios, Times of Israel) — terms Hamas, which ties any handover to a full withdrawal and statehood, has not accepted. Bessent's 'economic isolation' plan stayed pending its rollout this week; Brent held near $88–89; the Houthis' claimed strike on a Saudi warship stayed unconfirmed; and Israel's Lebanon threat exchange with Hezbollah carried (Bloomberg, OilPrice, Türkiye Today, France 24). Direction holds mixed; seven-day and spillover risk hold critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability holds at 6.