Day 105 brief — 2026-06-12

Day 105 reverses Day 104's two-night exchange — on Washington's word. After a morning vow to take Iran's oil and a threat to seize Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, President Trump called off the scheduled third night of strikes hours later, posting that discussions with Iran had been 'brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved' and that a settlement is 'subject to finalization of documents' he expects signed in Europe 'in the next few days' (Washington Times, Al Jazeera). Markets read de-escalation: Brent fell nearly 3% to about $90.38 and US equities rose (CNBC). Analytical judgment, per §3.5.3: the optimism is entirely Washington-side. A senior Iranian official linked to the talks told MS NOW that Tehran has agreed to no memorandum of understanding or framework; Iran formally rebuked the IAEA censure adopted Day 104 and vowed to defend its 'inalienable rights' (IRNA); and Foreign Minister Araghchi stayed defiant — 'Leave our region if you want to be safe' (Tribune). Netanyahu said Israel is not party to the emerging deal and would halt strikes 'for now' but strike back if attacked (Times of Israel); the UAE and Iran held rare direct talks, widening the mediation. The kinetic pause is real and stepped back from an oil-infrastructure escalation; the deal it hangs on is unconfirmed by any Iranian principal, and the framework has broken three times before. 30-day ceasefire probability rises to 15 from 8; direction shifts to mixed, seven-day risk eased to critical.