Day 171 brief — the morning after the lapsed deadline, Washington readies an 'economic isolation' plan while Iran moves to write the Hormuz closure into law

Day 171 opened the morning after the deadline the whole board had watched lapse — and neither capital used the vacuum to reach for a deal. Both reached instead for permanence. Washington signaled it will answer the empty deadline not with a strike but with money: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US will roll out an 'economic isolation' plan for Iran 'the world has never seen before' this week, a pivot reporting ties to a US munitions shortfall and mounting domestic opposition before the November midterms (Bloomberg, CNBC). Tehran answered with law rather than talks: its parliament's national-security commission approved the outline of a bill to write the Strait of Hormuz closure into statute — codifying the Persian Gulf Strait Authority permit regime and a ban on US, Israeli and other 'hostile' vessels (IRNA, Middle East Eye). Trump again said he would declare Hormuz US territory 'pretty soon,' even as just sixteen ships crossed on Monday and Tuesday against 130–140 a day before the war and Iran insisted the strait 'remains blocked' (NBC News, Al Jazeera). The widening fronts stayed hot: Kushner met Hamas in Egypt on Sunday and meets Netanyahu today on a plan the prime minister still rejects, while Israel and Hezbollah traded retaliation threats after Saturday's mass-casualty Lebanon strike and the Houthis shut Yemen's Mokha port under a barrage (Al Jazeera, France 24). Brent held near $88–89 (OilPrice). Direction holds mixed; seven-day and spillover risk hold critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability slips a point to 6 as both sides institutionalize the standoff.