Day 120 brief — 2026-06-27

Day 120 turns to de-escalating — two material signals overrode a still-contested maritime picture. In Washington on Friday, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement, the first since the war began, with Secretary Rubio calling it a 'first step' toward 'lasting peace and security' (CNBC, Axios, Al Jazeera). The deal makes a ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah's full cessation and evacuation from the South Litani Sector, sets up pilot zones for exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control, creates a US-facilitated trilateral Military Coordination Group, and pledges $100M in US humanitarian aid and LAF training (NBC News, Jerusalem Post). Skeptical counter per §3.5.3: it is a framework, not a withdrawal — Netanyahu vowed Israel will hold its south-Lebanon buffer zone 'until Hezbollah disarms,' and Hezbollah accused Israel of a 'flagrant' breach the same day, with Lebanon's health ministry reporting three killed in a strike on a car in Mayfadoun (Times of Israel). The second signal is the market's: oil fell to pre-conflict levels despite Thursday's vessel strike — Brent settled down 4.34% to $71.99, a ~10% weekly loss back to where prices sat before the February 28 US attack, as more tankers exited Hormuz (CNBC, OilPrice). Against both: the IRGC Navy's warning that passage is permitted only via Tehran-designated routes still stands, the IMO evacuation pause holds, transits run a fraction of the 130–140/day pre-war norm, and the nuclear-inspection sequencing dispute is unresolved (Tasnim, Al Jazeera, NPR). 30-day ceasefire probability ticks up to 73; direction is de-escalating because a signed Israel–Lebanon framework and oil at pre-war lows are the two hardest pieces of evidence the war has produced this week — even if both arrive hedged.