Day 194 brief — Houthi barrage on Saudi energy sites reopens the Yemen front and pushes Brent toward $100; Hormuz hardens both ways as the IAEA goes 'completely blind'

Day 194 widened the war south. Iran-aligned Houthi forces launched their heaviest barrage on Saudi Arabia in years — dozens of ballistic missiles and drones striking Aramco energy sites across Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran, hitting the 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery and igniting fires that halted operations and wounded 73 people, including women and children (US News, The National, NPR, CNN). The Saudi-led coalition called it a 'serious escalation' and vowed 'all necessary operational measures,' reopening the Yemen front the 2022 truce had frozen. The market read it toward rupture: Brent touched $99.16 and a session high near $99.46 — its closest approach to $100 since the war began, up more than 8% in September (CNBC, NBC News, Trading Economics). At Hormuz the chokepoint hardened both ways: Iran's SNSC pressed its coming 'restricted zone,' and the IRGC said it struck a remotely-operated US vessel that had entered a restricted portion of the strait, even as the two-way tanker war carried (GlobalSecurity, Al Jazeera). At the IAEA's Vienna board, Grossi called the agency 'completely blind' for more than a year, with over twenty sites and ~440 kg of 60% uranium unverified — a 'serious proliferation concern' (Al Jazeera, Euronews, Jerusalem Post). The connected fronts held: Gaza deadlocked on disarmament-before-withdrawal, Iran's execution wave deepening (Amnesty: 26+ since January), the China bank blow still pinned behind the September 24 Xi summit. Direction holds escalating; seven-day risk extreme; spillover critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability holds at 3.