Day 170 brief — the twice-extended deadline lapses into stalemate as Iran downgrades the contacts to 'not negotiations' and Israel widens its Lebanon strikes

Day 170 brought the deadline the whole board had been watching — and the deadline did nothing. The 60-day MoU and Oman-corridor window reached its Sunday (~Aug 16-17) expiry with neither a reopening nor a rupture. An Iranian official told state media the two sides were still passing messages 'through intermediaries' but insisted the 'process should not be called negotiations,' while CNN called the Hormuz standoff a continuing stalemate (ABC News, CNN). Tehran held its six preconditions — lift the blockade, pay war-damage compensation, unfreeze assets, lift sanctions and end the campaign — and Trump repeated that Iran must instead compensate the families and Gulf states it has struck (Time, CBS News). The maritime pressure did not ease: UKMTO logged roughly 20 projectile-strike incidents around Hormuz since July 6, the US struck a container ship in the Gulf of Oman bound for an Iranian port, and a June-disabled tanker grounded on a Hormuz island has spilled hundreds of thousands of gallons; Brent held in the high $80s, up about 5% on the week (Fox News, NBC News, Bloomberg). The war widened where the deadline did not: Israel stepped up strikes in southern Lebanon, killing at least eleven people including children by the Health Ministry's count (Al Jazeera). Washington kept a Gaza track alive — Kushner and Mladenov visit Israel and Egypt next week — but Netanyahu again rejected the 15-point plan, and Saudi Arabia warned of imminent coordinated attacks on Gulf energy and ports (NBC News, CNN). Direction holds mixed; seven-day and spillover risk hold critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability holds at 7.