Day 161 brief — Iran's published Hormuz draft bans US and Israeli ships as the deal turns 'agreed in principle' pending Khamenei; oil rebounds above $82; Saudi braces for attack

Day 161 turned the Hormuz 'deal' into a published text — and the text is maximalist. Iranian state media released a draft plan that would bar US and Israeli ships from the strait, block any nation 'that has harmed Iran' until it pays compensation, and levy a penalty worth 20% of a ship's cargo on violators; Iran and Oman called the wider route 'agreed in principle,' pending sign-off from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has stayed out of public view since February and whom President Pezeshkian said it is 'very difficult' to reach (CNBC, Bloomberg, France 24). The market read the terms, not the pause: Brent rebounded 3.8% to close at $82.49 and WTI rose 2.8% to $77.29, unwinding the week's roughly 8% slide (CNBC). Washington rejected the shape — a US official said any route must carry 'no tolls or charges' because 'no party controls the lanes' — while Iran's deputy foreign minister said an Oman deal does not reopen the strait and set preconditions: end the port blockade, roll back reimposed oil sanctions, and fix the Lebanon MoU (CNBC, CNN). Trump said the war would end 'pretty soon' but warned the strait 'is going to be open very soon or they are going to get hit very hard.' Saudi Arabia braced for imminent, IRGC-coordinated attacks from Iraqi militias and the Houthis on its ports, airports and energy sites (CNN). Per §3.5.3 the concrete text is the toll-and-exclusion outcome the US rejects. Direction holds mixed; seven-day and spillover risk hold critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability edges down one point to 13.