Day 166 brief — Hormuz deal hopes fade as Trump hardens and US objections stall the Oman route; Brent runs toward $100 as Iran installs a new hardline military command

Day 166 resolved the prior week's split toward its hard edge: the Hormuz deal hope that had animated days of 'very close' reporting broke down, and the other vectors hardened with it. President Trump toughened his line on Iran and US objections to the Omani route stalled the Iran-Oman arrangement, even as Pakistan's defense minister insisted the two sides were 'close to some sort of arrangement' — the optimism §3.5.3 says to distrust — while Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, made a full reopening conditional on Washington unfreezing Iran's blocked funds (Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC, NBC News). The market kept climbing: Brent settled near $88.9, up more than 6% on the week, with analysts flagging a run toward $100 as the closure dragged on and no new supply was actually lost (CNBC, Al Jazeera, OilPrice). Iran reconstituted its decapitated high command — a decree named six new top commanders, Ahmad Vahidi taking the IRGC and replacing the 'martyred' Mohammad Pakpour, though outlets split on whether Ali Khamenei or his son Mojtaba signed it (Press TV, The National, Islam Times). The maritime front stayed kinetic: the US Navy fired on a ship running the blockade as Tehran deepened its Pakistan ties, and the Houthis pressed an eighth Saudi-tanker claim while Riyadh still weighed a unilateral answer the untested Mecca pact had not delivered (Fox News, Bloomberg, FDD). Trump was reported pivoting back to sanctions and seeking an exit. Direction holds mixed but tilts toward escalation; seven-day and spillover risk hold critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability eases to 9.