Day 249 brief — Netanyahu's motive surfaces as the midterms arrive, Iran's delegation leaves Doha with the blockade as its price, and the strait's flow figures collide

Netanyahu's reported motive surfaced, and the diplomatic channel lost its venue without losing its mediator. The Associated Press, citing two regional officials and a third source, reported that Benjamin Netanyahu wants another wave of strikes on Iran after today's American midterms, that renewed war could help him form an emergency government after he and his allies lost their parliamentary majority, and that he is working with senior American officials on a quick but extensive air campaign; Donald Trump would not commit on the Saturday call. Trump called it a very good talk, told an Iowa rally that at some point we're going to have to give them the hammer, said the war will end very soon one way or the other, and said Washington would not attack before the election. Marco Rubio repeated that no decision has been made. Iran's delegation left Doha on Sunday, an official said not because of a breakdown, and spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran would reach no final settlement unless the American blockade of its ports is lifted. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered an immediate response to any attack with no geographical restriction. UKMTO reported a vessel struck by an unknown projectile in Hormuz, CENTCOM said Iran's attacks on shipping have killed more than twenty people, and a Pakistan-bound Qatari LNG carrier, the Al Mayeda, was hit after reportedly receiving an Iranian green light. Brent was reported near $111 on 1 November, below the near-$118 this file carried, and the two are not reconciled. Direction stays mixed; the probability holds at 9.