Day 147 brief — Houthis strike two Saudi tankers and Brent crosses $100 as Trump weighs a 'massive attack'

Day 147 crossed the line the market and the mediators had watched for all week: the Houthi embargo moved from reroute to interdiction. Yemen's Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers — the Layla and the Encelia — with drones and missiles in the Red Sea, their first attack on vessels since declaring the blockade, setting the Encelia ablaze with all crew reported safe (US News, Washington Times, CNBC). The price answered instantly: Brent surged to $100.69 a barrel, up roughly 7% and briefly touching $102 intraday, its highest in eight weeks and a near-20% gain since the re-escalation began two weeks ago, with Goldman Sachs flagging $120 by the fourth quarter if disruption persists (Trading Economics, The National, NBC News). Washington's response tilted escalatory: Trump said the US will hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks and is weighing a 'massive attack,' while CENTCOM completed its twelfth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian maritime, missile, drone and air-defense targets (CNBC, Euronews). The diplomatic track deepened without advancing: the Oman-brokered proposal now specifies a 'middle corridor' through Hormuz between Omani and Iranian waters, carried to Washington by Qatari, Egyptian, Omani and Pakistani officials, but the US wants a longer ceasefire and navigation guarantees first, and neither Trump nor Iran has accepted (Jerusalem Post, Axios). Per §3.5.3 it remains an unaccepted claim; both sides strike to build leverage. The US toll holds at 17. Direction escalating; seven-day risk extreme; spillover critical; thirty-day ceasefire probability holds at 10.