Day 164 brief — the 'imminent' Hormuz deal cools as Trump says the US is 'only semi-negotiating'; Houthi drones strike the Saudi Aramco Jizan refinery

Day 164 saw the 'imminent' Hormuz deal cool while the Saudi front turned kinetic. The optimism Iran and Trump narrated on Day 163 — a 'finalized' framework, a deal 'imminent,' talks resuming Monday — deflated into mutual contradiction. Foreign Minister Araghchi said there were no ongoing negotiations with Washington and that reopening the strait was impossible until the US ended its 'violation' of the June memorandum and paid compensation; national-security chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr issued a maximal list — lift the naval blockade, withdraw US forces, end the war and sanctions, release frozen assets, compensate war damage — declaring the strait would not reopen 'until America corrects its behavior' (CNN, Al Jazeera, NBC News). Iran said the accord awaited its Supreme National Security Council's approval, with Pezeshkian again calling contact with a wounded Khamenei 'very difficult.' Trump, in turn, downgraded his own claim — saying the US was 'only semi-negotiating' and 'low keying' Iran to let economic pressure work — even as a US official said 'we expect a deal soon' and messages passed through intermediaries (ABC News, Times of Israel). Per §3.5.3 the deal Trump repeatedly called 'imminent' cooled the moment it was tested. On the Gulf front the southern axis went kinetic: Houthi drones struck the Saudi Aramco refinery at Jizan — the first confirmed hit on Saudi energy infrastructure this phase, though the fire was extinguished with no facility casualties — while a Houthi strike on Yemen's Mokha port killed at least eleven and wounded thirty-two (Al Jazeera, Euronews). The northern Iraqi-militia axis stayed postponed. Brent held in the low-to-mid $80s. Direction holds mixed; seven-day and spillover risk hold critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability eases to 12.