Day 136 brief — the round ruptures: Hormuz declared closed, ~140 US targets struck, and Iran hits five Gulf states

Day 136 is the rupture the convened round was one day from. The Muscat table that met Saturday collapsed within twenty-four hours into the largest tit-for-tat exchange of the renewed war. Late Saturday the IRGC torched a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the M/V GFS Galaxy, on what it called an unapproved route and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed 'until the end of US interference'; a second vessel was disabled Sunday (Al Jazeera, NPR). CENTCOM answered with its third strike round of the week — about 140 targets overnight (missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition, coastal surveillance), more than 300 across three nights — hitting Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, Hajiabad and five Bushehr-province cities (CENTCOM, IRIB). Iran then struck US bases across five Gulf states — Oman's Duqm, Qatar's Al Udeid, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan's Prince Hassan — claiming destroyed command centers and MQ-9 hangars; per §3.5.3 those are Tehran's claims, and the confirmed harm is three wounded, including a child, from intercept shrapnel in Qatar (Al Jazeera, Arab News). Ghalibaf posted Article 5 of the MoU with the line 'the era of one-sided deals is over,' and Trump reaffirmed the ceasefire is dead. The closure is itself contested three ways: the IRGC says shut, Iran's foreign ministry tells Tasnim shipping is 'operating normally,' Washington says the strait is open (Al Jazeera). Brent gapped toward ~$95 a barrel — up roughly a quarter from the lull — with $100 warnings if the closure holds (NBC News, CNBC). Thirty-day ceasefire probability falls to 15. Direction is escalating: the negotiation round the last brief tracked has been overrun by the kinetic one it was meant to prevent.