Day 154 brief — the pause breaks: US hits dozens of IRGC targets after Iran's salvo; Oman breaks with Tehran at the UN as Brent tops $92 and Houthis embargo Saudi Arabia

Day 154 ended the pause. After Iran's July 28 ballistic-missile salvo on US forces in Jordan, the United States struck back: CENTCOM ran a two-hour 'heavy wave' beginning 8 p.m. ET Wednesday against dozens of IRGC targets — command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal-defense and maritime sites — the first US strikes on Iranian soil since the five-night interruption Trump had cast as space for talks (OANN, CNN, US News, Al Jazeera). 'It's our turn to hit them,' Trump said; the IRGC pledged retaliation and Tehran threatened to hit regional energy 'in which the United States has interests.' Iranian state media reported explosions at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm — where a couple and their child were killed — and the Jask desalination plant destroyed, cutting water to twenty villages (IRNA, Tasnim). The tape re-priced the war back in: Brent topped $92 intraday before easing near $90, up from roughly $89 (Fortune, Trading Economics). Oman broke publicly with Iran, formally telling the UN it opposes Tehran's mandatory Hormuz transit fee even as it floats a voluntary, Malacca-style charge — gutting the toll's own broker (National Security Journal, Al Arabiya). And the Houthis declared a maritime embargo of Saudi Arabia; Kpler logged Bab el-Mandeb traffic down 34% as Saudi cargoes turned back (CNBC, The Hill). Per §3.5.3 the 'pause for talks' was always a one-directional US claim; the two-way strikes on Iranian soil are the fact. Direction stays escalating; seven-day risk critical; spillover critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability slips to 11.