Day 193 brief — Iran readies a 'restricted zone' beyond Hormuz as the tanker war becomes competing blockades; Brent at a six-week high; IAEA 'completely blind'

Day 193 turned the tanker war into competing blockades. After the US struck three Iranian tankers over the weekend — destroying one — in reprisal for ballistic-missile fire at its warships, Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will declare a 'restricted zone' in the coming days reaching from the US naval blockade line into the Persian Gulf, warning that any vessel crossing toward Hormuz without Iranian coordination will be blacklisted and lose its insurance and future passage (Washington Times, The National, Al-Monitor). Tehran spoke with two voices: as Rezaei and parliament speaker Ghalibaf hardened the maritime coercion, President Pezeshkian said Monday that continuing the war 'is neither in our interest, nor in the interest of the region' and urged ending it 'from a position of strength' (Al Jazeera, The National) — the SNSC's counter-blockade set against the president's off-ramp, the gap the intelligence. The market read the escalation, not the olive branch: Brent settled near $97.5, a six-week high and roughly 40% above pre-war, after a 9.3% weekly gain, with Hormuz near a fifth of normal (Trading Economics, Al Jazeera). The IAEA sharpened its warning — Grossi said the agency has been 'completely blind' for more than a year, inspectors still barred from the bombed sites and ~440 kg of 60% uranium unverified (Al Jazeera, Arms Control Association). The connected fronts held: Iran's execution wave deepened, Gaza stayed deadlocked, and Lebanon's reprisal cycle carried. Direction holds escalating; seven-day risk extreme; spillover critical; the thirty-day ceasefire probability holds at 3.